Developments in Russia and Ukraine
The Russia-Ukraine war continues to be stuck in a deadlocked situation. While Russia has gained control over the eastern parts of Ukraine – around 18% of the Ukrainian territory – comprising of Russian-speaking population, neither side has been able to make any further advances. Russia has repeatedly sent feelers and made statements to the effect that it is willing to negotiate a peace agreement based on the new status quo. In other words, it wants to retain the newly conquered territories in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has understandably rebuffed these overtures, even as it organizes its own international peace conference in Switzerland to mobilize new support for the war.
The Russian desperation to end the war with a face-saving exit is understandable in the context of the toll this war has taken on the internal situation in Russia. While the uprising by Wagner group last year, the recent murder of rebel political leader, Alexei Navalny and the massive terror attacks in Moscow are some of the major upheavals the country has faced since the war started, there are several constant disturbances that are on the verge of causing dangerous structural changes in Russia. These include dissatisfaction within the Russian provinces populated by various ethnic groups, including Muslim-majority provinces, rising public fatigue against war and the toll it is taking on Russian people.
Most recently, Russian leaders have, in the wake of Moscow terror attacks, begun a stream of consistent tirade against illegal immigrants and the dangers they pose to the Russian society. The government has also taken the decision to form volunteer battalions in the North Caucasus, consisting of ethnic non-Russian people to fight in the war in place of regular armed forces. It has also passed legislation creating a Cossack “mobilization reserve”, with Cossacks loyal to the Kremlin playing an increasingly active role in Russia’s offensive campaigns. Further, in a sign of growing repression, the government is on course to club various voices of opposition under the single umbrella of an “international social movement for the destruction of the multinational unity and territorial integrity of Russia” – termed the “Anti-Russian Separatist Movement.” Once this fictitious club is declared an extremist organization – the case is currently due to be heard in the Russian Supreme Court – it will unleash many times more potent repression than what is visible at present. These steps not only betray extreme insecurity, but also reflect diminishing military might in many crucial areas.
Further, in signs of growing desperation to keep itself relevant, Russia is accelerating its activities to sabotage political systems of smaller countries in the neighbourhood, particularly Georgia and Belarus. While Belarus has officially deployed the Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs), the pro-Moscow Georgian government is set to pass a foreign agents law in a bid to reduce western influence in the country. Russia is also using Cyrus – a non-NATO EU member – to conduct various operations against the European countries. In the Balkans, Serbia is actively courting Russia and China, with the new government appointing a number of Kremlin-linked ministers. Finally, Russia – with the Chinese backing – is engaging in an increasing attempt to stoke tensions in the Svalbard region over which Norway claims sovereignty (as per the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, which was negotiated by excluding the Soviet Union), and which is supposed to be multinational, especially having large numbers of Russians and some Chinese people. Russia maybe planning to use Svalbard as the first site of attack on West in case the war expands.
Developments in Science and Technology
The fatigue with Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already visible. Even as new developments continue apace, the increasing trend of societies becoming accustomed to AI – in its present limited form – is fast giving way to fatigue. In recent times, AI applications have become increasingly standardized across various sectors and arenas. For now, it has become another tool for complementing human convenience without posing any substantial risks, even though doomsday predictions continue to abound. Its increasing use is also being accompanied by increased regulation from governments. Following the AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park in the United Kingdom last year, a mini summit was recently held in South Korea, where companies like Google, Meta and OpenAI made voluntary safety commitments, including restricting their cutting-edge systems if they can’t rein in the most extreme risks.
Besides these regulations, recent innovations in this field are more visible in AI applications in the field of science and medicine. For instance, in a significant contribution to the field of speech-restoration neuroprostheses, for the first time, a brain implant has helped a bilingual person who is unable to articulate words to communicate in both of his languages. An artificial-intelligence (AI) system coupled to the brain implant decodes, in real time, what the individual is trying to say in either Spanish or English. The findings provide insights into how our brains process language, and could one day lead to long-lasting devices capable of restoring multilingual speech to people who can’t communicate verbally.
While such innovations proceed, doubts about the limitations of AI are also well-acknowledged. The promise of objectivity that AI holds – which is what attracts scientists to this tool, based on the assumption that maximum possible objectivity can be assured through AI in a way that can limit human intervention and accompanying biases as much as possible – is now being increasingly questioned. For, AI can never provide pure objectivity – even if such a thing exists – as AI models are only as good as the data that is used to train them, which is ultimately subject to human interventions.
Israel-Hamas War
The Israel-Hamas war continues alongside Israeli incursions into Rafah. The US -and key European countries like Germany and France – continue to solidly stand behind Israel, even as some European countries like Spain, Norway and Ireland have proceeded to grant official recognition to Palestine. They claim that it is the best possible way towards a peaceful two-state solution.
These actions come in the wake of Karim Khan, a prosecutor at the International Criminal Court, putting in a plea before the Court to issue an arrest warrant for various individuals, including Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister and individual leaders of Hamas. Absurdly, the plea for a warrant seeks to place leaders of a democratic country on the same footing as those of a non-state terrorist organization. The US rightly rejected such calls.
Even as international pressure continues to build on Israel, the country claims it is determined that any peaceful solution will have to involve a complete dismantling and destruction of Hamas.
Trump Conviction
In a landmark ruling, Donald Trump, the former United States President and putative Republican nominee for the White House, has been found guilty of falsifying records to cover up a hush money payment he made in 2016 to an adult film actor. This charge is just first among the four major offences that Trump has been charged with and is also relatively less serious compared to others. With this verdict, Trump is now officially a felon, a criminal convicted of a serious crime, which presents an unprecedented situation in American political history. He has not yet been sentenced, with the sentencing being set for July.
Practically, the verdict means that Trump – who is registered to vote in Florida – cannot vote there until completion of his sentence. Under federal law, he cannot possess a firearm. But he can still run for president and serve in office, because nothing in the Constitution disqualifies people with convictions – or who are in prison – from running for, or serving as, president. In fact, even if Trump is jailed, he can campaign from prison. The sentencing is scheduled to take place in July just before the Republican Party Convention, and much may depend on how seriously Trump is sentenced, although it is believed that he will be chosen as the Republican Presidential nominee.
The cases against Trump can cut either way. They can polarize the country further or they can turn the tide by turning the public sentiment of Republican voters against Trump. Much will depend on how this case develops further.