Technology: Mushrooming Risks to Security
The advent of Claude’s new AI software, Mythos, heralds an entirely new dimension of the AI race – one that will hold significant implications for national security. The fact that even the parent company, namely Anthropic, which was developing this software was unaware of its capabilities till they were revealed in real-time, makes the discovery even more dangerous. Unlike the previous AI models that came before it, the uniqueness of Mythos lies in its ability to detect what are known as ‘zero day’ vulnerabilities in an operating system, that is, vulnerabilities, dating back to the probable inception or initial operations of these systems, which went undetected even by the developers of these systems. Already, Mythos has detected numerous vulnerabilities in almost all operating systems and web browsers, which went undetected for decades.
While there are many other AI models which can detect ordinary risks and vulnerabilities in systems, the ability of Mythos to go into such level of detail makes it dangerously stand apart. As a result of its capabilities, Anthropic has taken the call to not launch Mythos to the public. It has, instead, opted to give its access to a select group of American technology companies, through Project Glasswing, a platform which brings them all together. The purpose for giving such access was to enable these companies to address their system’s vulnerabilities before a similar model is launched by another company. This scenario, and the way Mythos has been restricted for public use heralds several ominous implications for our present AI trajectory:
First, it brings home the risk of proliferation. No matter how much the technology is restricted, once it has come into active formulation, it can always be replicated by other actors. That is the reason Project Glasswing provides access to the Mythos to a handful of companies. At the most, it can give them an early mover advantage, but once this gets proliferated in other forms, everything would be levelled down. This is especially so because the nature of this AI model is such that even the most powerful cyber defences won’t work against it. Mythos has proven it can evade and find vulnerabilities even in the most fortified digital spaces. We are, therefore, effectively staring at a future where nothing is safe anymore.
Second, this brings us to another important revelation that Mythos has made, that is, the fact that this proliferation will have wide implications in the form of the exposure of the entire digital public infrastructure upon which the present-day economy rests. In today’s world, everything from our medical records to our financial systems to our other critical infrastructure like electricity grid and water supply etc. is digitized. Interconnectedness is at its peak, but without any physical basis. Already central banks around the world have been spooked by the rise of Mythos. The message is that nothing is safe, and as this technology proliferates, it will only get worse, since critical infrastructure is directly linked to national security, and if this becomes a target of adverse actors, the resultant implications may result in rising conflicts. Therefore, the rise of increasingly advanced technology is compounding rather than reducing our precarity.
Third, the advent of Mythos reveals that we are now moving beyond the era where new technologies would be in the danger of being weaponized by merely wrong or adverse actors, into an era where AI itself is reaching a level of agentic intelligence that bypasses our definitions of adverse actors. Mythos is a product of this age of agentic AI, which is capable of expert autonomous decision-making and consequent manipulation. Mythos represents a capability wherein an AI model can not only scan the existing systems for vulnerability but also execute changes and attacks. This has already been demonstrated, but its proliferation heralds the danger of taking even decision-making out of human hands.
Finally, the most concerning aspect of this and many other regular developments in the field of technology is the continuing lack of clarity in our minds about the direction that we are taking. This became visible when the launch of Mythos generated widespread concern among various countries, as the US government sought access to the model and its use was restricted to selected American companies. These indicated the incipient rise of a potential AI arms race. Yet, policymakers continue to debate whether AI is a ‘friend’ or a ‘foe.’ In Europe, which complained about being kept in the dark regarding Mythos, this intellectual and technocratic approach to AI continues to persist. In others like China, weaponization and race has already begun, while others like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan attempt to harvest the fruits of commercialization potential of AI, while India is still struggling to grapple with a drastically changed reality. Such ambiguity among countries, which continue to debate the pros and cons of regulation, is at odds with the rapid advances in technology, and shows that our fog of confusion and greed still hasn’t lifted.
The Iran War: Ceasefire and Its Delusions
The US-Israeli war with Iran finally saw a decisive break when a temporary ceasefire was declared by both the sides early last month. The ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan and subsequently led to the ‘Islamabad Talks’ between the top political leadership of both the sides, that is, US and Iran. Israel continued to remain non-committal although it has adhered to the ceasefire. What was notable about this ceasefire was that its intervening period and the inability to reach a lasting deal, revealed the weaknesses and recalcitrance of both the sides in a way which has had a lasting impact on the regional and global geopolitics. This becomes clear in the following ways:
First, globally, the psychological impact was immense, especially in terms of heralding a decisive dilution of the American leadership capabilities. Just before the ceasefire, America had threatened to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure. On many occasions, Trump has been visibly grandstanding and making big threats which he never followed up on. This posturing stood at odds with America’s readiness to accept a ceasefire. Not only this, but the pattern of posturing by Trump was repeated even after the abject failure of the Islamabad dialogue, when Trump threatened to revoke the ceasefire if a deal was not reached soon. And yet, every one of Trump’s threats have come to nought. This, along with Trump’s curtailment of Israel, has revealed America’s psychological weakness and emboldened Iran even further.
Not only this, but this blatant show of weakness has also resulted in a damage to American reputation globally. Friends and foes alike now do not hesitate to call America’s bluff. Further, even core American allies – such as, Europe, Japan, Australia, Britain and South Korea – are altering their strategic calculus and military postures to become more self-reliant and diversify their alliances away from America. Thus, even as America continues to retain global hegemony as a result of its economic and military capabilities, the psychological blow dealt to its role by its own leadership is impacting the material structure of its dominance.
Second, this psychological impact has led to significant regional realignments in the Gulf. The region is witnessing the rise of a new political architecture, marked by a preparation in anticipation of a future without the American security umbrella. The new realignment will seek to balance Israel and Iran, as also the widening gap between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has exacerbated after UAE’s exit from the cartel of oil-producing states, the OPEC and the OPEC+.
In the emerging architecture, there is, on the one hand, an incipient emergence of a new, Islamic quad in the form of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella. On the other hand, there is also a visible strengthening of the ties between UAE and Israel, along side Israel’s allies, such as India. Whether these realignments will fructify or serve a peaceful purpose in the region is still uncertain, but what is certain is the decline of the kind of stability that was earlier provided by America’s hegemonic role in the region.
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Rising Capabilities
In recent times, the Russia-Ukraine war has taken a turn towards a decisive psychological breakthrough. The effects of this psychological breakthrough are now visible on the battlefield, with Ukraine effectively wearing down Russian advantages, even as Russia continues to be overcome with war fatigue and rising anti-Putin sentiment. Two patterns are clearly visible here:
First, since some time, Ukraine has been effectively incubating diverse technological innovations which have now begun to bear fruit on the battlefield. Notably, these include low-cost, mass-produced Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and low-cost drones with wider range and effectivity. In recent times, the production of these systems has enabled Ukraine to overcome its embedded disadvantage in the form of limited air defence systems which were insufficient to meet constant Russian bombardment of its cities. Furthermore, ever since Donald Trump took over the American Presidency, his pro-Russia approach and his early falling out with the Ukrainian leadership acted as a trigger for Ukraine to expedite the production of new systems as alternatives.
The UAVs that Ukraine now uses heralds the rise of a new generation in this technology. It marks a departure from the earlier UAV technology which was limited in its scope of geographical operation due to reliance on radio frequencies. However, the new UAVs developed by Ukraine act as defensive air interceptors and also perform the offensive role of going thousands of miles into the enemy territory to conduct strikes. This is because they are internet-enabled and no longer rely on radio frequencies. Thus, effectively, an operator sitting in a basement in Kyiv now has the capability to strike Moscow. This has enabled Ukraine to conduct strikes, in recent times, deep within Russia.
Second, this rise and rise of Ukrainian arc of technological development has not only helped Ukraine on the battlefield but has also enabled it to become a world class leader in low-cost, mass-produced effective technological systems. With the rise of wars in different parts of the world, these have come to be in demand, leading to many countries seeking to strike defence partnerships and defence trade arrangements with Ukraine. The most notable recent case was Gulf countries seeking Ukrainian help to strike down Iran’s Shahed drones during the recent war. They are now entering into institutional partnerships with Ukraine. India too is known to be planning a defence roadmap with Ukraine. Most significantly, America itself is now seeking the import of Ukrainian technology products, as is Europe. This has enabled Zelenskyy to effectively tell Europe that the latter now depends on Ukraine for its security against Russia.
All these countries realize that advantage in today’s wars hinges less on the traditional defence powerful systems with maximum damage capabilities but limited flexibility and high associated costs, and more on low-cost but effective and flexible systems. The latter can help the weaker side sustain, if not win, a war. Iranian military journals reveal how Iran has itself replicated many of Ukraine’s technological methods. All of this goes on to show how the present tide has turned in favour of Ukraine. It is not only acquiring battlefield advantages, but also diplomatic recognition and sound base of power projection globally.
Third, the war is now entering an arc of full circle. It has become a war of attrition for Russia and turned into an advantage for Ukraine. Despite controlling nearly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, Russia is having to expend a significant amount of manpower and resources to merely retain it. Further, the war has moved from the frontlines right into the heart of the Russian territory, thanks to Ukraine’s development of stable long-range capabilities. This means that instead of winning, Russia is the one fighting to sustain the war. Internally, this has taken a toll on Putin’s leadership, with rising anti-incumbency, the rumours of another potential coup and the implications of a widely circulated European intelligence report which documented how Putin is spending a lot more time in the bunker due to fear of Ukrainian drones.
Psychologically, and at a subtle level, Ukraine has already won the war. Its physical manifestation may be a slow and friction-ridden process, but has reached a stage where Russia is desperately looking for an exit.
