Developments in Russia-Ukraine War
Russian Mobilization of Muslims Amid Declining Conscription:
Even as the war sees little major breakthroughs except varying intensity of drone attacks from either side, Russia has been jolted by declining recruitment of combatants in the Russian army to fight in the war. The last few months have especially seen such a decline, with Russian military facing the highest manpower losses during May-September 2024. In the wake of this, Russia began a new conscription campaign in October 2024 with the aim of recruiting 130,000 soldiers – a much lower number than the 150,000 soldiers recruited during April – July 2024.
Further, in the backdrop of this declining conscription and Russian manpower losses, the revival of religious organizations to internally mobilize for the war is now being witnessed in Russia. While other non-Catholic minorities have desisted from participating in the war, with Buddhists even condemning it, Russia has sought to mobilize the Muslims in recent times. In this regard, the Russian government has enlisted the support of Muslim Spiritual Directorates (MSDs), which are religious organizations established during the Second World War.
The deployment of MSDs in the present war, however, is much more extensive than it ever was during the Second World War. In the present war, the attempt is to mobilize the Muslim population against a foreign enemy, and, also to fill up the vacuum of intermittent shortage of manpower in the Russian military to avoid recruiting ethnic Russians from metropolitan cities. This, Russia calculates, can help achieve various objectives, such as containing tensions between Muslim and non-Muslim combatants within Russian military through the MSDs, and project the illusion that Russia is internally at peace. To what extent Russia is successful depends on the changed context of the present times when, both, Muslim population as well as the radicalization among Russia’s Muslim minority has increased, making the country a frequent target of Islamic terrorist attacks. Historically, many MSDs – presently there are hundreds of them – have harboured motivations that have sought to challenge the Russian state. With the revival of MSDs, the latter is a challenge that Russia may further have to contend with in the future.
Dangers of a New Proxy War
With the deployment of North Korean troops by the Russian military, a new facet of the present war has developed. The North Korean troops have been deployed as a part of the mutual security agreement between the two countries, dating back to the Cold War period. According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, 1,500 North Korean “special forces” arrived first with a total complement of 10,000 troops, who would be allocated into two brigades of 5,000 troops each. In the past, during the course of the war, like Iran, North Korea has also allegedly transferred weapons and ammunition to Russia. Like in the past, in the present instance of troop deployment too, the United States has refused to give much traction to it, as has South Korea. For, giving traction to this development risks the escalation of the war to much more expansive dimensions, making it a war between US and Russian proxies and something akin to the Cold War dynamics. Further, the presence of North Korean troops has also reduced Russia’s stress of forcible recruitment of locals.
Developments in Israel-Hamas War
Israel-Iran Face-off
The war along Israel’s twin fronts in Lebanon and Gaza continues unabated, with the looming specter of an all-out escalation with Iran becoming more concrete with time. In recent times, the Iranian drone attack on Israel – the second one this year – did not cause any damage to the latter and did not result in any casualties. This was followed by Israeli air strikes on Iranian military bases. In the past also Israel has targeted Iranian facilities – like earlier this year – and carried out targeted assassinations within Iranian territory. However, unlike in the past when Israel never claimed any of its actions, this time Israel explicitly announced the airstrikes while its jets were inside Iran.
In the latest strikes, Israel targeted Iran’s air defence, missile, drone manufacturing and storage facilities in three provinces, including Tehran. The strikes – which lasted a few hours – laid bare the weak state of Iranian air defence systems. Iranian response was also one of its kind this time. Unlike in the past, when Iran would deny the strikes or claim limited or no damage, this time, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamanei, himself announced that Iran should neither exaggerate nor downplay the damages resulting from Israeli strikes and that Iran would use all its resources to deliver a response to Israel. How this plays out is yet to be seen. However, the strikes do mark a new phase of closer and more frequent escalations between Israel and Iran, thereby igniting the possibilities of the expansion of the war to a regional level.
Israel’s Vindication
In yet another instance of how Hamas terrorists are using civilians as human shields, Israeli troops captured around 100 Hamas terrorists after raids on a hospital in northern Gaza. Further, as part of the raids, Israeli troops also uncovered weapons, funds and intelligence documents which were being used by the Hamas terrorists. Some terrorists had even disguised themselves as medical staff. The incident shows how, in terrorist hubs like Gaza, civilian and terrorist interlinkages often go deep. That is probably why because of such incidents – after providing extensive evidence – the Israeli Parliament finally passed a law banning the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) from operating throughout occupied Palestine, branding it a “terror” group. For a long time, instead of operating like a UN agency, the UNRWA has operated more like a government, providing services such as health care, education and even psychological support. Its deep roots in Palestine ingrained it as part of regional politics, with Israel stating that many members of UNRWA were involved in massacre of Israelis on October 7th, 2023.
Hindu Genocide in Bangladesh
The continuing genocide of Hindus in Bangladesh has finally triggered an aggravated reaction from the minority community in the country, with tens of thousands of Hindus rallying to demand that the Yunus government give them protection from attacks and drop sedition charges against leaders from the Hindu community. With around 30,000 Hindus gathering at Chittagong’s Laldighi Maidan – under the banner of Sanatan Jagran Manch – demanding their rights, the Bangladesh government has been rattled. Many Hindus have also boldly stood guard outside their temples. Besides Chattogram, protests by Hindus were reported from other parts of Bangladesh as well.
The community is calling for an 8-point agenda, including:
- Compensation for the families of missing, deceased, injured, or affected religious minorities.
- Establishment of a Ministry for Minority Development.
- Formulation of a Minority Protection Law and the establishment of a special tribunal for justice.
- Declaration of three days of public holidays for Durga Puja.
- Recovery of confiscated religious properties, enacting a preservation law, and restoration of temples in respective areas.
- Establishment of model temples in all 64 districts and a Vedic university, transforming the Hindu Religious Welfare Trust into a foundation.
- Modernisation of the Sanskrit and Pali Education Board.
- Declaration of a public holiday for the Rath Yatra.
Besides the genocidal acts of physical violence against Hindus, the latter are also the target of a variety of other forms of harassment, such as social exclusion, smear campaigns, discrimination in employment including forceful resignations or dismissals and subjection to constant climate of fear and threat. India has repeatedly, through foreign affairs ministry, called on the government in Bangladesh to prioritize the safety of Hindus and ensure that those responsible for attacks on the community are brought to justice. In a positive signal to the Hindus, US President-elect, Donald Trump, during his past month’s campaign extensively and bluntly condemned the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians and other minorities in Bangladesh.
India-China Border Rapprochement
The long overdue and secretly negotiated India-China border settlement has finally led to a disengagement of troops from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), thereby fulfilling India’s negotiating condition of a return to the pre-2020 arrangement. This disengagement will be followed by the two other steps of normalization viz. de-escalation and de-induction of troops. In the process, the countries have also arrived at a solution to the ‘legacy’ issues of patrolling in Depsang and Demchok regions in eastern Ladakh. In addition, there was also an understanding on Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh viz. that Chinese patrols in the area will be allowed as in the past without being blocked. With the agreement reached on patrolling points, the post-Galwan face-off is finally being settled. While the disengagement process at five other friction points was already conducted in 2022, Depsang and Demchok had proved to be difficult. In the present deal, India has not only gained patrolling access, but also grazing rights for its herders.
With the disengagement now complete, the political realignment also took place rapidly, as visible in the Modi-Xi meeting for the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. This meeting at the highest level is expected to be followed by the resumption of foreign ministers and national security adviser-level dialogues.
India-Canada Row
India-Canada diplomatic relations were already at an all-time low since last year when Canada alleged that Indian officials and agents were involved in the killing of Khalistani “activist” Hardeep Singh Nijjar in 2023. Concurrently, an Indian-origin person was also facing indictment in a US court in a case involving a “conspiracy” to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun – another Khalistani terrorist who has issued multiple open threats against India. Canada claims to have received ‘credible intelligence’ from the Five Eyes partner countries. The coordinated timing of US and Canada escalations have posed a challenge for India. Unlike Canada, however, the US has been defter and more circumspect. It has avoided making any public allegations against India, and let its judicial system take its own course.
While the issue created diplomatic tensions few months back, Canada again chose to reignite it with a repetition of the same allegations. Further, it accused six Indian diplomats in Canada – including the High Commissioner – of acts of extortion, homicide and other violent acts against ‘Canadian citizens.’ This time it even went a step further and made it personal by naming Indian Home Minister Amit Shah (in a manipulated leakage to the Washington Post), as being involved in the attack on Nijjar. Canada also accused India of escalating violence further since last year when Canada had first made the allegations.
India, in turn, has rejected Canada’s allegations against its diplomats and has pulled out its six diplomats from the country in return it has also expelled six Canadian diplomats from India. Canada has also tightened the visa process, as Trudeau has been under domestic fire over illegal immigration. India has further maintained that despite consistently seeking hard evidence from Canada, instead of merely intelligence inputs, Canada has failed to provide that. In the absence of evidence, Canada’s intelligence inputs do not hold any value. In turn, Canada has bizarrely asked India to cooperate in its investigation into Indian officials themselves! In the wake of Canada’s renewed aggression, India has also hit back with unusually blunt language – usually reserved for Pakistan – stating that domestic political compulsions and ‘vote bank’ politics in Canada have led to a highly ‘permissive’ environment for anti-India secessionist activities in the country.
The diplomatic crisis has laid bare the ill-willed motivations behind the synchronization between the Biden administration and the Trudeau administration. The renewed face off came at a time when the US administration was, more or less, in a state of autopilot with Biden no longer active, and Harriss taking the key decisions besides campaigning for the elections. The attitude displayed by the West in this saga has ended up alerting India further to the pitfalls of falling in too closely in line with the West. The double standards of US are particularly jarring, since it has had a long history of covert and explicit instances of domestic interference, assassinations and regime changes not only in enemy countries, but also in treaty allies like in Europe. Indeed, countries like US and Isreal have been very open about carrying out targeted individual killings in foreign lands.
For the West to, thus, talk about the rule of law becomes ironical. In the name of rule of law and free speech, countries like US and Canada have tolerated open calls for violence against India, open threats by so-called “activists” like Pannun to blow up Indian airlines, public celebrations of past violence against India, and attacks on Indian diplomatic missions based in “Five Eyes” countries. One of the most jarring of such attacks was the attack on Indian consular event at a temple in Brampton, Canada to facilitate travel processes for Indian diaspora, including many Sikhs. The gathering came under one of the worst instances of violent attacks, with the Canadian police finding itself unable to control the situation. This, in turn, led to extensive disturbances between Hindus and Khalistani Sikhs – an insignificant portion even of the overseas Sikh community. This has led to the mobilisation of many Hindus and Sikhs seeking to organise against such senseless acts and the attitude of the administration in the face of such acts.
