The results of the Delhi assembly elections reflect the short-lived and waning influence of the AAP model in Indian politics. In the defeat of AAP and the inability of the Congress party to emerge from its self-destructive ennui, the BJP has emerged as a clear victor, gaining power in Delhi after 26 years. This victory of the BJP has come after three consecutive terms of rule by the AAP in Delhi since 2013. With both Arvind Kejriwal and his former deputy, Manish Sisodia, losing from their respective constituencies, and with Congress failing to win even a single seat, the results show that BJP was successful in making corruption under Kejriwal a key election issue in its campaign. With the new government in power, the administrative deadlock which has characterized the governance of Delhi is expected to ease.
The Broad Results
The BJP won with an impressive majority of 48 seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly, while the AAP managed to secure 22 seats. The Congress did not get even a single seat for the third time in a row, and majority of its candidates also lost deposits.
| Party | Seats | Vote share (%) | ||||
| 2025 | 2020 | 2015 | 2025 | 2020 | 2015 | |
| BJP | 48 | 8 | 3 | 47.2 | 39.77 | 33.2 |
| AAP | 22 | 62 | 67 | 43.6 | 53.57 | 54.3 |
| Congress | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 | 4.26 | 9.7 |
| Others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | – | – |
The decline in AAP’s vote share by nearly 10 percentage points as well as in its seat share shows that the party has suffered a serious decline. The Congress saw only a marginal improvement of more than 2 percentage points in its vote share. Despite the fact that the Congress was in power in Delhi between 1998 and 2013, it was completely wiped out by the AAP.
Caste and Community Wise Voting Patterns
This election saw the BJP being successfully able to consolidate a broad coalition of upper caste and OBC groups, even as the AAP began to face disenchantment from its traditional constituencies consisting of Muslim voters and Dalits.
| Community | BJP (%) | AAP (%) | Congress (%) |
| Brahmin | 66 | 26 | 5 |
| Rajput | 60 | 33 | 4 |
| Vaishya/Bania | 66 | 25 | 7 |
| Punjabi Khatri | 67 | 26 | 5 |
| Jat | 45 | 44 | 5 |
| Gujjar | 44 | 49 | 5 |
| Yadav | 47 | 50 | 1 |
| Other OBCs | 55 | 38 | 5 |
| Jatav | 34 | 59 | 5 |
| Valmiki | 25 | 67 | 9 |
| Other Dalits | 41 | 53 | 3 |
| Muslims | 15 | 65 | 16 |
| Sikhs | 43 | 45 | 10 |
| Other minorities | 40 | 50 | 6 |
Source: Lokniti-CSDS
While the BJP commanded a solid support base among the upper castes, among the OBCs it was a popular choice with the Jats. However, the Gujjars and Yadavs voted more for the AAP. Among the Dalits, BJP’s penetration remains weak compared to the AAP, especially with the Valmiki Dalits who voted overwhelmingly for the AAP. It is interesting that the Sikh vote got almost split in the middle between the AAP and the BJP, with a slightly more vote going towards the BJP.
Class Wise Voting Patterns
Class has been in an important category in a metropolitan city like Delhi. Traditionally, AAP has cultivated a vote base among poor and lower-class voters, while BJP has been perceived to be the party of choice for the rich. Since 2013, AAP’s political mobilization has been based along classist patterns, including tailoring of welfare schemes. This has made polarization along class lines a major feature of Delhi politics in recent years.
| BJP (%) (+/- percent change from 2020) | AAP (%) (+/- percent change from 2020) | Congress (%) (+/- percent change from 2020) | |
| Poor | 42 (+9) | 50 (-11) | 6 (+2) |
| Lower | 46 (+15) | 44 (-18) | 7 (+3) |
| Middle | 47 (+8) | 44 (-9) | 6 (+1) |
| Rich | 60 (+18) | 30 (-17) | 7 (+3) |
Source: Lokniti-CSDS
As the voting patterns indicate, AAP has been able to secure the highest vote share among the poorest sections of society, while the BJP has been able to secure more vote share among the lower, middle and rich classes. However, the voting shares of the lower and middle classes are almost divided evenly between the BJP and the AAP. It is also notable that the AAP has suffered heavy vote share losses across all classes, especially amongst the lower classes.
Gender Wise Voting Patterns
Gender has been another important fault-line in Delhi politics. Traditionally, AAP has sought to mobilize women voters in the city through a slew of welfare measures, mostly hinging around freebies in transport as well as measures resulting in household savings in terms of electricity and water.
| BJP (%) (+/- percent change from 2020) | AAP (%) (+/- percent change from 2020) | Congress (%) (+/- percent change from 2020) | |
| Male | 51 (+8) | 39 (-10) | 7 (+2) |
| Female | 43 (+8) | 49 (-11) | 5 (+2) |
Source: Lokniti-CSDS
As is clear, the BJP’s victory was mainly due to male voters. While the BJP secured the highest vote share among the men, AAP secured the highest vote share among the women. However, the AAP also lost more than 10 percentage points of vote share across men and women. Part of the reason why the AAP could still secure a high vote share among women lay in the free bus ride scheme, with majority of female beneficiaries of that scheme (55%) voting for the AAP.
Region-Wise Voting Patterns
Regional divide in voting choices was also visible in this election. While the BJP outperformed the AAP in all the regions in Delhi, it surprisingly lagged AAP in South Delhi – the city’s rich and elite region. South Delhi was the only region where the AAP performed well and lost relatively lower in terms of vote share compared to other regions.
| Region | BJP | AAP | Congress | Others | ||||
| 2025 (%) | +/- from 2020 (%) | 2025 (%) | +/- from 2020 (%) | 2025 (%) | +/- from 2020 (%) | 2025 (%) | +/- from 2020 (%) | |
| Chandni Chowk | 45.8 | 8.1 | 45.1 | -10.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | -0.1 |
| East Delhi | 47.6 | 5.2 | 42 | -8.4 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| New Delhi | 47.8 | 10.8 | 43 | -12.5 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -0.5 |
| North-East Delhi | 44.7 | 7.6 | 45 | -8.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 4.5 | -1.2 |
| North-West Delhi | 48.5 | 8 | 40.8 | -11.2 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0 |
| South Delhi | 43.7 | 3.6 | 47.8 | -6.6 | 5.4 | 3 | 3.1 | 0 |
| West Delhi | 51.3 | 11.1 | 42 | -12.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
Source: Lokniti-CSDS
The BJP’s performance was the best in West Delhi – an area that has large concentration of Jat and Sikh population in the city. It was the only region in which the party could cross the 50% vote share. In the previous elections, AAP had surpassed the 50% vote share in nearly all regions.
Discussion
The results indicate that the assembly elections this time, despite being painted as a three-way contest between the AAP, the BJP and the Congress ended mostly being a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP. While the Congress was able to undercut AAP’s vote share to some extent, its influence was not very major. The following trends stand out:
First, the AAP was able to secure decent performance in Muslim-dominated areas and in areas with larger numbers of poor category population. Despite this, the party’s vote share did decline by 12.3 percentage points in Muslim-dominated seats and by 8.2 percentage points in areas with relatively poor population. However, AAP’s decline in Muslim-dominated areas did not result in any major gains for the BJP, due to the strong performance of Owaisi-led AIMIM in two seats (Okhla and Mustafabad) and the competition posed by the Congress in Muslim dominated seats.
Second, the BJP’s core base continues to be largely those areas with relatively rich population and low minority population. It was also able to successfully build a caste coalition of upper castes and OBCs.
Third, the extent to which freebies influenced the elections remains contested. This is because both BJP and AAP went out of their way to promise a variety of welfare programmes for the people, with BJP even committing to retaining AAP’s existing welfare policies. This shows the deep interlinkages between freebie infrastructure and the election process.
Fourth, corruption and misgovernance have been the major cause responsible for the unraveling of the AAP. The arrest of Kejriwal and his key ministers in the wake of excise policy scam as well as other investigations against the AAP have resonated with the public psyche. The refusal of Kejriwal to resign from the Chief Minister’s post initially even after going to jail exposed a deeply selfish picture for people to judge. Even prior to the arrests, the constant tussle between the Lieutenant Governor and the Chief Minister made a mockery of the Delhi administration. Kejriwal’s constant blaming of LG for failing to take policy action began to appear more and more like an excuse for not working.
Finally, the election results are expected to have resonance in wider Indian politics. It will portend negative consequences for the AAP in Punjab – where there is already discontent due to the party’s corrupt practices – and in other states where it was trying to expand, such as Goa and Himachal Pradesh. The election results have also once again brought to fore the artificial and precarious nature of the Opposition INDI Alliance, where knives have been drawn out against the Congress party once more. The public perception as well as the perception within the alliance that it is nothing more than an opportunistic temporary congregation to challenge the BJP has further fortified.
