Developments in Russia-Ukraine War
Ukraine’s breakthrough:
In a massive breakthrough in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian soldiers have occupied large portions of Russia’s Kursk region. Even more surprising is the fact that Russia is unable to push them back. While Russia is attempting to obfuscate the extent of occupation in Kursk, Ukraine has claimed that it occupies around 1000 square kilometers of Russian villages in Kursk. Not only this, but Ukraine has also captured hundreds of Russian troops in the region, to be used as bargaining chip for seeking the release of their own soldiers held in Russian captivity.
The development is significant, as this is the first major offensive breakthrough made by Ukraine since the war started in 2022. This marks the largest foreign incursion into Russia since the German army stormed in during the second world war. The fact that Ukraine has partially shifted the theatre of war inside Russia is a critical victory for the former. With Russian forces continuing their offensive in eastern Ukraine, Russia is already stretched on resources and manpower. Putin may accuse the West of precipitating the Ukrainian occupation in Kursk, but the fact remains that the development has given Ukraine a breakthrough and upper hand in the war, while exposing the hollow weakness of Russia’s military arsenal.
In occupying Kursk, Ukraine has two specific aims. First, it seeks to draw Russian forces engaged on the frontlines in the eastern part in Donetsk. Second, the occupied territory could serve as a bargaining chip for Ukraine in future peace negotiations with Russia, which Ukraine has already stated it wants Russia to attend later this year.
However, despite the breakthroughs made in the offensive, Ukraine continues to lag on the eastern front. It is unable to halt the advance of Russian forces in the Donetsk region, with Russia poised to conquer almost the entire region in due course of time. Moreover, the intensity and frequency of Russian attacks in the heart of Ukrainian territory have also increased since the Kursk offensive.
Geopolitics of the War:
1. With the war showing no signs of abating, Russia appears to be turning to desperate geopolitical venues. After growing close relations with pariah states like Iran and North Korea, Russia is now turning towards funding terror groups in the Gulf more actively. The group in question are the Houthi militants waging a war against Yemen’s government and the US and Saudi Arabia-led alliance in Yemen. There are damning reports indicating that Russia has been assisting the Houthis in targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden in the group’s war in support of Hamas.
While Russia has started supplying anti-ship missiles to Houthis – in response to US authorizing Ukraine to use western weapons to strike deep inside Russia – it is still cautious. Any active Russian involvement in the conflict will impair its relationship with other countries in the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia. Further, any active Russian support for Gulf militants would also represent a dangerous expansion of the conflict in Ukraine that would not easily be reversed, thereby linking the two separate wars.
Russia is also becoming increasingly entangled with Islamic terrorist groups, as it draws closer to Taliban in Afghanistan. This has been driven by the growing threat of Islamic State in Khorasan (ISKP) – a branch of the ISIS in Afghanistan – which is creating security challenges for Taliban government in Afghanistan and is also perpetrating terrorist attacks in Russia. ISKP views Russia as a top target mainly due to the legacy of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Chechen wars, and the 2015 military intervention in Syria to support Bashar al-Assad’s forces. As a result of the growing ISKP threat, Russia has now declared Taliban – itself a major designated terrorist group – an ‘ally’ in Moscow’s fight against terrorism.
2. Russia is rapidly losing influence in its traditional foothold of South Caucasus, as Armenia – a key Russian ally – moves away from the Russian sphere of influence. This is visible in Armenia attempting to reduce economic and military dependence on Moscow through deals with other states, including France, India, and even Iran. Further, recently, Armenia also announced its plans to withdraw from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Prior to this, Armenia had already initiated agreements for Russian border guards to leave the country. These steps by Armenia signal the changing geopolitical impact of the war on the region, with Armenia seeking greater autonomy, alignment, and cooperation with Western and regional powers.
Modi’s Ukraine Visit:
In a historic landmark visit, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, became the first Indian prime minister to visit Ukraine after diplomatic relations were established in 1992. Modi’s visit to Ukraine follows a previous visit to Russia a month before and a prior immediate visit to Poland – one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies in Europe. The visit to both the countries – while yielding several bilateral agreements on cooperation in various fields and with commitment to elevate India-Ukraine partnership to a ‘strategic’ level – stand out mainly for their larger symbolic and political value. This for the following reasons:
First, the visit indicates India’s change in foreign policy approach in clearly de-hyphenating relations with Russia and Ukraine. This lends more of an instrumental – rather than a deeper strategic value – to Modi’s previous Moscow visit. In the past, India’s relationships with Russia and Ukraine were deliberately linked, with Russia taking precedence and relations with Ukraine and other eastern European countries being determined in the light of India’s relations with Russia. This Russia-dominated world view has been India’s consistent policy in Central and Eastern Europe since the dissolution of the Soviet Union – a policy shaped by India’s lack of interest, and deliberate ignorance of regional European history and politics. This visit marks a landmark change in this entrenched foreign policy position.
Second, Modi’s visit favourably positioned India as a future candidate for mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine. Although Modi did not go with any peace plan, yet both Russia and Ukraine have signalled willingness to seeing India taking a more active role in pacifying the war.
Third, Modi’s visit to Ukraine has larger implications for other countries in the Global South. Till now, the countries of the Global South have either displayed lack of interest in the war or have been more favourably inclined towards Russia. However, the positive optics and discourse of Modi’s visit reflected India’s empathy towards understanding the suffering of Ukraine as well as its legitimate positions. This will have a greater impact on countries in the Global South, where India often takes up a leadership role.
Fourth, the fact that Modi even embarked on this landmark visit in the middle of the war – and that India’s Defence Minister was in Washington at the same time – shows that India has changed its stance in the war, at least in actions if not in words. The visit signals that India will not be a completely neutral bystander in the war and is willing to signal its moral preferences more clearly. This is also reflected in the fact that prior to Modi’s visit, India had – for the first time – signed a Quad statement supporting Ukraine.
In conclusion, it is worthwhile to remember that not all global exchanges and relations have to be rigidly tailored around a concrete agenda and successful outcomes. Many countries – notably, China and Turkey – have sought to position themselves as third-party mediators in the war. However, their approach has been transactional and utilitarian in nature, focused on achieving success, without realizing that there is no clear-cut formula for success in such wars. However, mere empathy – without a necessarily concrete or success-oriented agenda – can still go a long way in creating hidden psychological impacts that may be more meaningful than a rigid transactional approach.
West Bengal Horror
The horrific rape and murder of a young residential trainee doctor at the RG Kar Medical College and Hospital in Kolkata has once again shaken the conscience of the country. It was in the intervening night of 8th to 9th August that the young trainee doctor was raped and murdered. The subsequent autopsy report revealed that the victim was also put to brutal sexual torture during the rape and was killed by strangulation. There are also suspicions that there might have been a gangrape, although till now investigations have not confirmed it. According to the sequence of events that has come to light, the victim had, after dining with her juniors, retired into an empty seminar hall at around 2 AM to take a rest. The gruesome horror occurred during that night, with the body being discovered in the morning. The police arrested Sanjoy Roy, a civic police volunteer, as the prime suspect in the crime.
The subsequent handling of the case by the West Bengal authorities has been a source of disgrace. Even as massive protests by doctors and doctors’ associations broke out all over the country, with West Bengal being the main state witnessing protests, the state government went even further on the backfoot, attempting to deal aggressively with the protestors and hide the crime – at one point, even shielding the principal of the college who was accused of corruption – instead of investigating transparently. It was also disgraceful that under the protection of the state government, the college principal had completely mishandled the crime, attempting to cover up the whole case and pass it off as suicide. When he was forced to resign from RG Kar Hospital, the West Bengal government rewarded him by instituting him as a principal of Calcutta Medical College and Hospital. Further revelations showed the dire lack of safety and basic facilities in the hospital – this is indeed the case in most public hospitals. It also threw light on the extremely long inhuman working hour shifts of junior and trainee doctors, with up to 36 hours of duty at a stretch.
The disgraceful and delayed response of the West Bengal government prompted the Kolkata High Court to transfer the case to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). Subsequently, at least 25 people were arrested in connection with the case, and many have been interrogated. Even the Supreme Court took suo moto cognizance of the case.
The protests are also continuing – especially in Kolkata – unabated, with the protests demanding justice and a list of demands to assure the safety and security of doctors. The Court criticized the State government, Kolkata police, as well as the college administration for mishandling the case. The court heavily criticised the law enforcement for the time delay between the discovery of the body and the registration of a first information report. Further, there were also allegations – by protesting doctors – that the goons of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) had attempted to forcefully enter the hospital and destroy evidence.
The case highlights, at once, all that is wrong with our system. Such crimes reveal a culture where perversions have become normalized. A society where revenge, lust, and other animal instincts in human nature are justified becomes a breeding ground for such gruesome cases. While the exact details and motivations behind the crime will be revealed only in the due course of the CBI investigation, the one thing that stood out was the degree of psychological distortion that has afflicted our society. The fact that the state government could even contemplate hiding the crime and protecting the accused shows that such base things have become too normalized in present societies. The West Bengal government has belatedly woken up to public resentment and passed a strict anti-rape law in the legislature (the ‘Aparajita’ Act).
However, there is no dearth of laws penalizing rape and other such offences. Particularly, the institutional architecture around the anti-rape laws was strengthened after the gruesome 2012 ‘Nirbhaya’ rape case. This case was also followed by widespread public protests and subsequent institutional steps were taken by the government. However, despite the laws and elaborate machinery established to tackle such crimes, the graph of sexual violence in India has steadily gone up. Part of the reason is that the society is so pervaded by all varieties of corruption that there is hardly any fear of law – one thing that Indians understand well is that law can be bought with money.
But this is merely the tip of the iceberg. Even in countries where corruption is less and laws are respected – such as the Western countries – the problem of sexual violence and crimes has gone up. That is because the deeper problem lies in the depths that collective psychology has plumbed, where all kinds of moral perversities are allowed, ignored and sometimes even glorified. In Islamic countries, sexual violence is used as a punishment to show women their place. In war torn countries or those with ethnic strife, rape is used as an instrument of institutionalized, systematic and deliberate revenge. Same is the case in prisons. In autocracies like China, the situation is largely better than others due a mixture of strong national system interspersed with traditional cultural values. The larger point is that the root cause of the problem lies in the values that modern societies have glorified and cultivated. The combination of a highly magnified vital ego and half-developed mental capacities is the characteristic of the modern man, who Sri Aurobindo has termed a ‘Philistine’. Our societies have merely become a reflection of our psychological barbarism.
