Developments in Russia-Ukraine War
Biden-Harris’s Administration’s Parting Shot to Russia:
In the wake of Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election, the Biden administration has signalled a rather sharp policy change vis-à-vis Ukraine. It has authorized Ukraine, for the first time, to use long range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory. It has gone ahead with this decision despite knowing that this might lead to a wider war. However, despite this policy shift, matters have not escalated as was expected, and the war continues at its own pace.
Part of the reason is Germany’s unwillingness to authorize Ukraine to deploy its missiles for striking inside Russia. Another reason is that Ukraine itself is now actively seeking peace while defending its own territory. Ukraine has even offered that Russia can keep the territories it has invaded in Donbas region in eastern Ukraine and advance no further, subject to the condition that Ukraine is allowed to become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia has also not voiced any public objections to NATO’s proposals. Mysteriously however, European countries continue to refuse to let Ukraine join NATO even at the cost of prolongation of the war.
Russian Geopolitics Backfires
For long, Russia has been attempting to craft and anti-West alliance, especially by expanding its strategic relationship with China, Iran and North Korea. This desperate attempt has now extended to forging alliances with terrorists like Hezbollah as well. In what will further complicate Russia’s relationship with Israel, in its recent ground offensive in southern Lebanon, is that it has recovered a tranche of Russian weapons. They were likely supplied from Russia to Syria and from there to Hezbollah. This is symptomatic of the larger pattern being practiced by Russia. In a bid to counter US’s influence in the Middle east, Russia is expanding ties with Iranian proxy militias like Hamas, Hezbollah and others.
In recent times, this has brought grief to Russia. With the re-eruption of the Syrian civil war at the behest of Turkey’s funding to Syrian rebels fighting against Assad, and their success in taking over major cities in Syria like Aleppo, Russia finds itself in a bind. Already engaged in a war with Ukraine, Russia now finds itself unable to adequately help Assad retain control of Syria. Iran is, likewise, in too weak a position to help Assad. Depending on the course of the Syrian crisis, Russian dreams of establishing counter-hegemony to the US in the Middle east may come crashing down.
Developments in Israel-Hamas War
ICC’s Double Standards
For an organization that has refused to sufficiently condemn terror sponsors like Iran and its terrorist proxies like Hamas, International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stands out as a mockery of the so-called liberal internationalism and its ideas of justice. In recent times, ICC’s activism has made a mockery of international law. Its warrant against Putin was ineffective, and its warrant against Netanyahu is likely to be more so.
Already, after the warrant, some countries came out in support of Israel. France said that the warrant could not apply to Netanyahu or his ministers as Israel was not a member of the ICC. Hungary’s Victor Orban too was quick to declare that Netanyahu should freely travel to Hungary without any fear of arrest. The incoming Trump administration has already threatened allies to not comply with the ICC and has termed ICC a ‘kangaroo court’ which it might sanction and its chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, a ‘deranged fanatic’, while Biden has termed the arrest warrant as ‘outrageous.’ Expectedly, activist leaders like Canada’s Trudeau have declared that they will arrest Netanyahu if he visits Canada.
ICC’s credibility took a further nosedive after its chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, who is behind the recent activism of the court, called on Bangladesh’s caretaker Mohammad Yunus in Dhaka recently. In what reeks of hypocrisy, the two discussed humanitarian situation of Rohingyas and the excesses committed by Sheikh Hasina during July-August anti-government uprising. Khan conveniently chose to overlook the ongoing genocide of Hindus and other minorities that has been going on under Yunus.
Ceasefire with Hezbollah
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah has come as one of the first breakthroughs in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. The war with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has been going on for almost a year, as part of Hezbollah’s support to Hamas in Gaza. In the past two months, Israel-Hezbollah escalation intensified as part of a series of electronic attacks by Israel on Hezbollah followed by widespread decimation of Hezbollah’s top chiefs and commanders, leaving the terrorist entity’s ranks considerably thin. Having weakened Hezbollah greatly – although Hezbollah continues to possess its bombers, weapons arsenal and rocket capabilities – Isreal’s acceptance of the ceasefire may be a strategic move to facilitate an end to the war. It also reflects the fact that Israel made only limited gains in southern Lebanon and failed to destroy Hezbollah’s rocket capabilities even after two months of ground offensive in southern Lebanon.
The ceasefire agreement is drawn from the UN Security Council Resolution No. 1701which was signed in the wake of the end of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, and stipulated Hezbollah’s and Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The present ceasefire agreement states that Litani river will be the zone of reference. Hezbollah will withdraw its militants to the north of Litani river, while Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon. Lebanese troops will alone guard the area between Israel and Litani river. The arrangements will be completed within 60 days. However, Israel has warned of resumption of retaliation against Hezbollah in case the latter violates the ceasefire agreement. With the ceasefire in place, Isreal can now focus on eliminating Hamas – its major objective in the war – and on dealing with Iran. It will also relieve Israel of at least one front in this war and re-supply its ranks.
Hindu Genocide in Bangladesh
The genocide of Hindus in Bangladesh continues unabated, and ISCKON has become the latest target of the Bangladeshi Islamists. Shortly after the massive rally held by Hindus in Chittagong under the banner of Sanatan Jagran Manch demanding basic dignity and protection, the Bangladesh government and the country’s Islamists unleashed fury on the Hindus, intensifying their attacks on the community. The Bangladesh government arrested Hindu monk, Chinmoy Krishna Das, under fabricated charges that the saffron Hindu flag at one of his rallies was positioned above the Bangladeshi national flag thereby affronting the ‘secular’ values of the country. These are bizarre charges, as Bangladeshi Constitution proclaims it to be an Islamic country, so the question of secularism does not even arise.
Having arrested the monk on these exaggerated charges, the government in collusion with Islamists has proceeded to continue their harassment and killings of the Hindus. It has filed cases against ISCKON seeking to ban it as a ‘terrorist’ organization. Subsequently, the case was dismissed by the Bangladesh High Court, likely a result of international pressure. When Hindus took out a protest demanding release of the monk, they were heavily put down. In clashes that followed during the protest, a Muslim lawyer, Saiful Islam, was killed. Without evidence, the government is attempting to implicate Hindus in his killing, while the Hindu side has maintained that he was killed by the Islamists as they mistook him for a Hindu lawyer who was there to represent the monk.
The latter is a more probable explanation in the face of the refusal of Bangladesh government to release clear facts, as, in recent times, over 70 lawyers who have attempted to represent Das have been attacked. Das’s main lawyer, Ramen Roy, is presently fighting for his life in a hospital ICU. In what is a further travesty of justice, Muslim lawyers at the court are agitating and threatening that they will not allow anyone to represent Das. As a result, Das’s bail hearing has been postponed to January 2nd next year. At the same time, every two to three days, a wave of attacks against Hindus takes places systematically, the latest one being in Doarabazar in Sunamganj over a “blasphemous” social media post by a Hindu boy which resulted in demolition of over 100 Hindu houses and at least 8 temples in the area, besides serious injuries inflicted on Hindus. When Bangladeshi Hindus tried to crossover to India, they were prevented by the Bangladeshi Border Guard from doing so. Further a bus carrying ISKCON devotees who wanted to go to Kolkata was also attacked in Bangladesh.
The Bangladesh government’s brazen actions in allowing all this to happen show its overconfidence on the global stage. It has already gained legitimacy in western eyes after the so-called sham ‘students revolution’ against Hasina, its biggest benefactor being the Biden administration. The refusal to acknowledge that the students’ revolution was an Islamic revolution has further bolstered Yunus, who has become an expert in playing the victim card. This may explain Bangladesh’s brazen confrontation with India. India – cutting across government and party lines – has issued multiple statements calling for the release of Das and protection of Hindus. RSS and ISKCON have also issued extensive statements condemning the present situation in Bangladesh. Many protests have continuously been taking place all over India, especially in West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. Bangladeshis are being weeded out and Bengal’s doctors and businessmen have refused to treat Bangladeshi patients or do trade across the border, respectively. Bangladesh’s High Commission in Agartala was attacked by protestors. West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee even demanded stationing UN Peacekeeping forces to protect Hindus in Bangladesh and demanded Indian government’s intervention.
Yet, Bangladesh has brazenly sought confrontation with India, taking offence to India’s official statements, and refusing to back down. It has also accused India of failing to protect its diplomats at the Agartala High Commission. The Modi government has, so far, responded with a mix of firm statements and diplomatic silence. However, the situation on the ground appears to be changing for the worse.
US’s Presidential Elections
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 United States Presidential elections marks a significant breakthrough in the American political landscape. This is only the second time that a candidate has won Presidential elections non-consecutively. This is also the first time in two decades that a Republican candidate has won, both, electoral college vote as well as the popular vote. Winning 312 electoral college votes and 50% of the popular vote, along with Republicans controlling the Senate, the House of Representatives and with an already conservative Supreme Court composition, Trump commands nearly absolute dominance in his second term. He also won all the seven swing battleground states. This victory came even though a lot more money was donated to Kamala Harris’s campaign as compared to the Trump campaign. Despite that, Harris did not add any new state to Democrat strongholds and was not able to improve over Biden’s 2020 victory. Her margins in some Democrat-controlled blue states also went down.
There was also a shift in some key demographic groups in favour of Trump. Among the Black Americans, around 16 percent of Black voters supported Trump in 2024, up from 8 percent in 2020. In comparison, 83 percent of Black voters supported Kamala Harris, down from the 91 percent who supported Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats also lost ground among Latin American voters, with 56 percent voting for Harris in 2024 compared to 63 percent for Biden in 2020. Trump’s support, among the Latin Americans, grew from 35 percent in 2020 to 42 percent in 2024. Indian Americans, who have traditionally voted for Democrats, also increased their support for Trump to around 30%. Trump – likely due to his denunciation of transgenderism and homosexuality – also holds appeal for religious groups beyond Christianity, with Hindus and Muslims also voting for Trump in several regions.
A major reason for Trump’s victory was the success of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. With its purely conservative agenda, religious undertones and anti-globalism, it appealed to a wide section of people, from those who were anti-establishment to those who favoured conservative politics. It also appealed to the workers and labour groups which increasingly viewed Democrats as espousing elite values. With Trump coming back much stronger, he has already signaled his intent to bring sweeping systemic changes, especially in dismantling the “deep state.” This is visible in the key choices for appointments to major positions. Many of them also include a non-Indian Hindu like Tulsi Gabbard and Kashyap Patel, Ramaswami and others. He has signaled his priorities including imposing tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, and carrying out emergency mass deportations of illegal immigrants.
